Will the 2020-2021 Law School Application Cycle Be More Competitive Due to COVID-19?

This original article was published on May 26, before the conclusion of the 2019-2020 application cycle. Sections have been updated to reflect the current state of law school admissions as of November 2020.

Many people want to know if the 2020-2021 law school application cycle will be more competitive due to COVID-19, and if so how they should plan to mitigate this potential change.

General Takeaway

While nothing is certain, it is likely that there will be an uptick in applications for the 2020-2021 application cycle, and perhaps for the 2021-2022 application cycle as well. Above the Law has already reported that applications are not just up, but they’re “way up” from this point last year. I agree with their attribution that this is likely due to a combination of the pandemic, the election, and the Supreme Court nomination. Let’s take all of those in turn.

The Pandemic and the Economy

Recessions oftentimes cause spikes in law school applications. This was especially evident after the 2008 precision. In April 2009, after the recession, The ABA Journal reported an uptick in applications from pre-law students, mostly due to students hoping to avoid the uncertainties of the job market by applying to graduate school. 67% also listed the potential earnings as a lawyer as a decision to attend law school. The following year in 2010, the New York Times reported that the number of people taking the LSAT rose 20% as compared to October 2008.

The Domino Effect From the Pandemic is Likely to Last More Than One Application Cycle.

Similar to the swiftness of the economic crash in 2008, the pandemic came upon us quickly and forcefully. While more people may be applying to school in the fall because of the economy and/or deferring their admissions (more on this below), many people will still be figuring out their next steps financially by the time the application cycle opens up in the fall. Those who decide to pivot to law school for economic stability will most likely make this decision for the 2021-2022 application cycle. The economic impact of the pandemic is going to have ripple effects for the next several months and perhaps the next few years. As job creation slows, more people will be turning to graduate school to pivot in their careers and increase job security.

The Election

Law school experts at Spivey rightly stated that this 2020-2021 cycle would be one of the hardest to predict. They mention, and other sources heavily reported on the “Trump Bump.” While we saw a little of this in 2016, the uptick really became clearer in 2018, and as more and more people felt the urge to do something rather than just watch politics descend into madness, no matter what side of the political aisle you stand on. The disfunction in Washington often left the American people as its victim spurring many to try to gain a seat at the table and be empowered with the tools to make decisions in this country. This election is quite similar, although I think all can agree the stakes of the 2020 election with the pandemic, the economy, and the Supreme Court confirmation, just seemed a little higher. 2020 has seen civil unrest, social justice, and political activism at heightened levels causing many people, pandemic or no pandemic, to want to pursue their calling to become an attorney.

The Supreme Court Confirmation

As if 2020 didn’t already give enough reasons to spur action, the confirmation of Judge Amy Barrett left many feeling strongly about the state of American politics. I predict that we haven’t even seen the peak of the law school applications for this cycle. Even now, in November, as I write this update — students are making the decision to go to law school, starting their essays, and registering for the January LSAT exam. I think there will be a massive flood of applications submitted in January this year.

A Note on Deferrals

If you have been accepted to law school and are weighing starting this year or re-applying next year, my advice is to start this year as planned. Every law school has its own policy on deferrals, and while some may grant them liberally, others are quite strict about the circumstances that would qualify for a deferral. Applicants should not assume that deferrals will be granted automatically.

If you aren’t able to defer, and you are considering perhaps waiting and re-applying to school next year, you may want to take caution. Andrew T. Guzman, Dean of the University of Southern California, Gould School of Law, commented in the April 29, 2020, LSAC Webinar (Law School Admission in the Time of COVID-19) that he expects the application cycle to be more difficult in 2020-2021 than this past application cycle. His opinion was that scholarships may be harder to come by and classes may be filled sooner.